When to Buy Stocks ?
g) When to Buy Stocks?
This is one of the two most commonly asked questions at this website. It’s always easier with hindsight to say if “I’d bought here and sold there I’d have made this much….”
Winners don’t focus on the past. Rather, they make their decisions now, based on current conditions. But where to start?
The first thing to realize is that you will never get it right every time. No one does. In fact, in his book ‘Better Trading’ Daryl Guppy says :
“ Armed with just a little knowledge, Trader Novice calls the direction of a trend successfully 50% of the time.
With more knowledge and skill Trader Average finds it relatively easy to boost the success rate to 60%. This means that for every 10 trades he enters, only 4 are losers or unsuccessful. There are a lot of traders in this grouping.
Getting from 60% to 70% is much more difficult. For every 10 trades, only 3 are failures. This success rate is sufficiently high for Trader Success to realistically consider trading as a full-time occupation.
To turn this sustainable trading into a major success we shoot for an 80% success rate to become Trader Superstar. This is like the top of the mast. Very few people make it to this level…….”
Knowing this from the outset, here are a few ideas to increase your success rate in knowing when to buy:
- Find a successful trader who you can trust as a mentor to show you what works and doesn’t work from their experience.
- Minimize the amount of ‘white noise’ input from broker alerts / newsletter recommendations / analyst reports – it gets too confusing
- Don’t look for excitement. Rather, find one method of trading or investing you relate to, and do that over and over until it becomes boring -- but importantly very profitable
- Never expect to buy in at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top of a trend. Rather, winning traders and investors are happy to ‘walk a mile with the crowd and then step back’ i.e. they grow their portfolio by successfully taking pieces of the available pie instead of attempting to have it all.
- Don’t ‘chase after the train after it has left the station’. A very common mistake is to worry about missing out after you see a stock has rocketed in price.
- Keep it simple – don’t get into analysis paralysis with charts overloaded in too many indicators. Rather, take the time to understand and learn how to identify chart patterns and a few select volatility signals which have a proven high probability of success.
- This will allow you to board the train before the whistle blows -- and put the balance of probability in your favor
At this site, we feature the volatility indicators and trading system of Jim Berg, a private trader and lecturer with over 25 years experience in the investment industry.
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